THE PROVOCATION · THE VOLUNTEER SEARCH

YOU'RE CLEVERER. OBVIOUSLY.

DUNK EXCLUSIVE

UEA
BEATS
ESSEX
ON BRAINS.

BREAKING NEWS / NO EVIDENCE PROVIDED

ASK THE ROOM

“Are UEA students more intelligent than Essex students?”

Vote: YES / NO / NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE.

VOLUNTEER WANTED: Who voted YES? Come and defend UEA’s intellectual superiority!

THE CROSS-EXAMINATION · ONE VOLUNTEER

GO ON. PROVE IT.

DUNK ASKS

“What makes you think we're cleverer?”

You voted YES. Tell us what convinced you. A study? A statistic? Or just the comforting knowledge that you chose the right university?

One more thing: Would you have believed me if I’d said Essex students were cleverer?

THE EVIDENCE FILE

How good is Dunk's research?

Did he compare test scores? Control for admissions? Use a representative sample?

THE PRICE CHALLENGE · YOUR MOVE

WOULD YOU BET £100?

DUNK HAS AN OFFER

“Would you stake £100 of your own money on UEA winning a properly designed independent comparison?”

Still confident? There’s £100 on the line now. What’s your answer?

Hypothetical stakes. No money changes hands.

WHAT'S YOUR ANSWER?

The claim is the same. The stakes are not.

A declined bet does not establish an irrational belief: risk aversion, uncertainty and the value of £100 all matter.

THE MECHANISM · THREE DIFFERENT STAKES

SAME BELIEF. DIFFERENT INCENTIVES.

WHERE DOES THE CLAIM GET TESTED?

Choose where the belief matters.

“UEA students are cleverer than Essex students.” The evidence hasn't changed. But the consequences of being wrong might.

SCENARIO 01 / THE PUB

A LOVELY BELIEF. A TINY PRICE.

LOW PRIVATE COST

Boasting about UEA feels good. Even if you're wrong, you probably lose little. Why spend your evening checking the data?

CAPLAN'S MECHANISM: When accuracy brings little private reward, the temptation to enjoy a flattering belief can win.

This illustrates an incentive, not proof that any particular student believes irrationally.

THE CRACK · WHEN BELIEF BECOMES CHEAP

RATIONAL IRRATIONALITY.

THE MECHANISM · BRYAN CAPLAN

WHY PAY TO BE RIGHT?

Rational irrationality: when being wrong carries little personal cost, people may indulge comforting beliefs rather than pay the effort or emotional price of questioning them.

THE CALCULATION:
Believing feels good: pride, identity, belonging.
Checking feels costly: effort, doubt, discomfort.
If your own error changes little, the comforting story can survive.

Not a claim that people knowingly choose falsehoods—or that all patriotic beliefs are mistaken.

NOW APPLY IT TO WAR

“OUR SIDE IS RIGHT.”
WHO HAS TO CHECK?

For a distant supporter, believing the patriotic story may bring pride and reassurance. One person's doubts are unlikely to change whether the war happens.

THE TERRIBLE ASYMMETRY: The incentive to question the story may be weak for the supporter, even when the consequences of the story are devastating for soldiers and civilians.

WAR DOESN’T ALWAYS REQUIRE PEOPLE TO ABANDON REASON.
IT MAY REQUIRE TOO LITTLE REASON TO QUESTION THE STORY.